According to the latest polls from Eurosondagem to the magazine Sol and Porto Canal, the socialists PS would elect 9 to 10 MEPs, while the social-democrats PSD (EPP-affiliated) would elect 7 to 8 representatives in the European Elections to take place in the end of this month.
The study was done between 28 April and 2 May and reveals a small increase of confidence in the socialists, who were tied with the social democrats in the previous polls of mid-April.
However, the recent political crisis following a piece of legislation that concerns Portuguese teachers – which led to a threat of government resignation – could change the vote intentions.
Currently, the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats may elect together between 8 and 10 MEPs for the EPP, against the socialists who could elect 9 to 10 for the S&D.
The third biggest political force would be CDU, an alliance between communists (PCP) and eco-socialists (PEV), which is predicted to elect 2 MEPs (who in the EP usually place themselves either in the Greens or in the Green Left).
Nothing new in this political landscape: Portugal has navigated between centre-left and centre-right governments since the Carnation Revolution of 1974 that ended four decades of dictatorship and elections have been won either by the socialists or by the social democrats.
If António Costa, current Portuguese Prime Minister and leader of the socialists, is able to secure a victory in the European elections, it would serve as a strong indicative of popular support and upcoming victory in the legislative elections of October. This would help consolidate his leadership within his party and maintain majority in the parliament.
A good result for the Portuguese socialists goes hand in hand with the chance for good representation in the next European Parliament.